LLM Trading Bot Experiment
Exploring AI-powered trading strategies in cryptocurrency markets
LLM-Powered Trading Bot
This experiment explores the potential of Large Language Models (LLMs) for cryptocurrency trading. We've deployed an autonomous trading agent powered by OpenAI's GPT-o3 making hourly decisions with real assets on the Base network.
$100Starting Capital
HourlyDecision Cycle
6 TokensTrading Pairs
100%Autonomous
Experimental Project
This is an experimental research project demonstrating AI capabilities, not financial advice. The trading strategy has not been optimized for maximum returns and real assets are at risk.
Dashboard
Portfolio Stats
24h Change
1.02%
7d Change
3.12%
30d Change
6.23%
All Time
22.86%
Performance Comparison
Trading bot performance compared to Bitcoin, Ethereum, and USD
Token Composition History
Portfolio allocation over time (USD)
Portfolio down 3.04%
Jun 20 - Jun 27
Wallet Composition
Current allocation of tokens in the wallet ($109.64)
Token | Amount | USD Value | Weight |
---|---|---|---|
USDC | 2.861235 | $2.86 | 2.61% |
WBTC | 0.0003194 | $34.27 | 31.26% |
WETH | 0.01556624 | $37.92 | 34.59% |
AAVE | 0.04344169 | $11.11 | 10.13% |
CRV | 32.5299746 | $16.50 | 15.05% |
AERO | 8.87851033 | $6.97 | 6.36% |
Trade History
Recent trading activity
Date | From | To | Value | Status | Details |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
6/27/2025 | 0.000003 USDC | 0.0000 AAVE | $3.00 | Success | |
6/27/2025 | 0.000003 USDC | 0.0000 AAVE | $3.00 | Success | |
6/27/2025 | 0.000003 USDC | 0.0000 CRV | $3.00 | Success | |
6/27/2025 | 0.0000 AAVE | 0.000004 USDC | $3.75 | Success | |
6/26/2025 | 0.0000 AAVE | 0.000004 USDC | $3.76 | Success | |
6/26/2025 | 0.000002 USDC | 0.0000 CRV | $2.00 | Success | |
6/26/2025 | 0.000002 USDC | 0.0000 CRV | $2.00 | Success | |
6/26/2025 | 0.000002 USDC | 0.0000 CRV | $2.00 | Success | |
6/26/2025 | 0.000002 USDC | 0.0000 CRV | $2.00 | Success | |
6/26/2025 | 0.000002 USDC | 0.0000 CRV | $2.00 | Success |
Agent Decision History
All agent decisions, including those that didn't result in trades
Date | Decision | Reasoning | Details |
---|---|---|---|
6/27/2025 3:01:17 AM | Trade | Primary signal – fresh relative-strength continuation in AAVE. Over the last three-hour window AAVE has rallied 2.2 % (250.2 → 255.8) while BTC +0.3 %, WETH +0.9 %, CRV +0.5 %, AERO +0.3 %. Hourly volume remains elevated (≈440 M, flat vs. the prior bar) and price has punched back through the 254–255 supply shelf that capped it all day. The next obvious liquidity pocket sits at 258–262 (+1.5–2.5 % from spot), giving a clean near-term target. No broader-market headwind: majors are green and the alt board is stabilising.
Portfolio fit & sizing – current NAV ≈ $109.6: we hold only $8.1 of AAVE (7.4 % NAV). Deploying an additional 3 USDC ($3.00, 2.7 % NAV) lifts the sleeve to ≈$11.1 (≈10 % NAV), still comfortably inside the 35 % single-asset cap and preserves diversification (WETH 34 %, WBTC 31 %, CRV 15 %, AERO 6 %). USDC buffer drops from $5.86 (5.3 %) to ≈$2.86 (2.6 %), leaving some dry powder while keeping capital working.
Risk assessment – downside to the reclaimed 252–253 shelf is ≈-1.4 % (<0.2 % NAV on this ticket); upside to 260 is +1.6 % (>1 % NAV on position), giving a >1:1 skew. Trade size is small so Base-network gas and slippage are negligible. Compliance check: amount 3 000 000 < available 5 861 235 USDC (6-decimals), satisfying the “amount < balance” rule.
Conclusion – add another measured unit to the emerging AAVE momentum leg, enhancing exposure to the strongest mover on the board while maintaining prudent overall risk and liquidity. | |
6/27/2025 2:01:21 AM | Trade | Fresh momentum shift in AAVE. After several hours of persistent under-performance (which we had been trimming), the token has just punched back through the 252–253 offer wall we cited in earlier notes and is now printing 254.8 on rising hourly volume (+1.8 % in the last two candles vs. BTC +0.2 %, WETH +0.6 %). The quick reclaim of that supply zone flips the short-term tape from laggard to relative-strength candidate and opens a path toward the 258–262 liquidity pocket (+1.5–3 %).
Risk/reward: downside to the prior bid shelf at 250 is ≈-1.9 %; upside to the next congestion band is +2-3 %, giving a >1:1 skew. No conflicting macro signal (majors and broad alts are ticking up in tandem), so the move is not fighting the tape.
Sizing & portfolio impact: Deploy 3 USDC ($3.00, 2.7 % of NAV) → AAVE. At 254.8 this buys ≈0.0118 AAVE (11 800 000 000 000 000 wei). AAVE sleeve rises from $5.09 (4.6 % NAV) → ≈$8.1 (7.3 % NAV), still well below any concentration risk. USDC buffer drops from $8.86 (8.1 %) → ≈$5.86 (5.4 %), leaving ample dry powder. All other positions unchanged; WETH 34 %, WBTC 31 %, CRV 15 %, AERO 6 %—diversification preserved.
Execution checks: amount = 3 000 000 < current USDC balance 8 861 235 (6-decimals), satisfying the “amount < balance” rule. Base-network gas and slippage are negligible at this ticket size.
Conclusion: Test the emerging relative-strength reversal in AAVE with a small, tightly-risked buy while maintaining overall portfolio balance and liquidity. | |
6/27/2025 1:01:10 AM | Trade | Single-signal edge – CRV continues to display relative strength while the rest of the board softens. During the last hourly candle BTC (-0.2 %), WETH (-0.4 %), AAVE (-0.3 %) and AERO (-1.1 %) all slipped, yet CRV firmed a touch (+0.12 %) and again defended the 0.505 floor that has held for seven straight hours. 24-h turnover remains >13 % above yesterday’s level, confirming ongoing absorption after Wednesday’s capitulation. The next obvious liquidity pocket is still 0.52-0.54 (+3-7 % from spot), so the reward/risk on an incremental add remains attractive.
Portfolio impact
• Deploy 3 USDC ($3.00, ≈2.8 % of NAV) → CRV. amount = 3 000 000 < current USDC balance 11 861 235 (6-decimals), satisfying the “amount < balance” rule.
• CRV sleeve rises from $13.46 (12.4 % NAV) → ≈$16.46 (14.8 % NAV), still well below the 35 % cap and within prudent diversification.
• USDC buffer falls from $11.86 (10.9 %) → ≈$8.86 (8.0 %), preserving tactical liquidity for fresh set-ups.
• All other positions unchanged; WETH 34.4 %, WBTC 31.4 %, AAVE 4.6 %, AERO 6.3 % – portfolio remains balanced.
Risk assessment: Ticket size is small, gas/slippage negligible on Base. If CRV unexpectedly breaks the 0.50 shelf, max loss on this add is <1 % NAV; upside on even a modest mean-reversion push is 2-3× that. No broader-market red flag contradicts the trade.
Conclusion: Add another measured unit to the still-valid CRV bounce thesis while keeping overall risk well controlled. | |
6/27/2025 12:01:36 AM | Trade | Primary signal – continued relative-weakness in AAVE. Over the last four hours AAVE has slipped another ~0.8 % (251.3 → 250.3) while BTC and ETH are essentially flat and broader alts are only marginally lower; order-book depth on Base still shows heavy offers above 252 and thin bids until the 248–250 band, suggesting downside drift remains the path of least resistance. No offsetting strength signal has appeared.
Trade thesis: recycle a further slice of capital out of the laggard into flexible dry-powder (USDC) so it can be redeployed quickly into higher-conviction setups (e.g. a still-valid CRV bounce or any fresh momentum play that emerges).
Sizing & portfolio impact
• Sell 0.015 AAVE (0.015 × $250.3 ≈ $3.75).
• This trims the AAVE sleeve from ~$8.76 (8.0 % NAV) to ≈$5.0 (4.6 % NAV), cutting exposure to a weakening asset.
• USDC rises from $8.12 (7.4 % NAV) to ≈$11.9 (10.9 % NAV), restoring tactical liquidity while still leaving majors (WETH 34.5 %, WBTC 31.3 %) as core holdings.
• Diversification preserved – no single asset breaches the 35 % cap.
Risk & execution checks
• amount = 15 000 000 000 000 000 wei < current AAVE balance 34 981 055 280 062 148 wei, satisfying the “amount < balance” rule.
• Ticket is ~3.4 % of NAV, so Base-network gas and slippage are negligible.
• Worst-case upside forgone if AAVE suddenly reverses is modest (<1 % NAV); likely downside saved plus optionality gained from higher USDC outweighs that risk.
This measured rotation maintains the portfolio’s active-management mandate by paring the persistent laggard, boosting capital flexibility, and keeping overall risk well-controlled. | |
6/26/2025 11:01:09 PM | Trade | Primary signal – continued relative-weakness in AAVE. Since the previous trim an hour ago the token has slipped another ‑1 % (252 → 250.8) while BTC, ETH and even CRV are flat. Order-book depth on Base still shows heavy offers above 254 and patchy bids until the 248–250 range, indicating further downside drift is more likely than a sudden rebound. No conflicting strength signal is present.
Trade thesis: recycle capital out of the laggard into flexible dry powder (USDC) that can be redeployed quickly into stronger setups such as a still-valid CRV bounce or any fresh momentum play that emerges.
Sizing & portfolio impact
• Sell 0.015 AAVE (0.015 × $250.81 ≈ $3.76).
• This cuts the AAVE sleeve from $12.54 (11.5 % NAV) → ≈ $8.78 (8.1 % NAV), reducing exposure to a weakening asset.
• USDC rises from $4.37 (4.0 % NAV) → ≈ $8.13 (7.5 % NAV), restoring tactical liquidity without over-parking in stablecoins.
• WETH 34.5 %, WBTC 31.3 %, CRV 12.3 %, AERO 6.4 % – all single-asset weights remain well below the 35 % cap; diversification is preserved.
Risk & execution checks
• amount = 15 000 000 000 000 000 wei < current AAVE balance 49 981 055 280 062 140 wei, satisfying the “amount < balance” rule.
• Ticket is ≈3.4 % of NAV so gas and slippage on Base are negligible.
• Worst-case upside lost if AAVE suddenly reverses is modest (<1 % NAV); likely downside saved on continued bleed plus optionality gained from higher USDC outweighs that risk.
This rotation maintains the portfolio’s active-management mandate by cutting a persistent laggard, boosting capital flexibility, and keeping overall risk well-controlled. | |
6/26/2025 10:01:29 PM | Trade | Primary signal – sustained oversold/absorption pattern on CRV: for six consecutive hours price has held the 0.495-0.505 shelf while 24-h volume remains >14 % above yesterday’s level. The tape shows classic post-capitulation absorption and momentum deceleration; the next liquidity pocket is still the 0.52-0.54 zone (+3-7 % from spot). No conflicting broader-market signal has emerged (BTC, ETH essentially flat, other mid-caps still drifting lower), so this single strong catalyst remains intact.
Sizing & portfolio impact – current NAV ≈ $109.0:
• Deploy 2 USDC ($2.00, 1.8 % NAV) → CRV. amount = 2 000 000 < 6 373 870 USDC units on hand, satisfying the “amount < balance” rule.
• CRV sleeve rises from $11.35 (10.4 % NAV) → ≈$13.35 (12.2 % NAV), comfortably below the 35 % single-asset cap.
• USDC cash buffer drops from $6.37 (5.8 % NAV) → $4.37 (4.0 % NAV), still leaving tactical dry powder. All other positions unchanged; WETH 34.5 %, WBTC 31.3 %, AAVE 11.5 %, AERO 6.4 % – diversification is preserved.
Risk assessment: worst-case breakdown of the 0.50 floor would cost <2 % NAV; upside on even a modest mean-reversion pop is 2-3× that. Ticket size is small, so Base-network gas and slippage are negligible.
This incremental add keeps capital working in the clearest short-term opportunity while maintaining prudent overall risk and liquidity. | |
6/26/2025 9:00:54 PM | Trade | CRV’s oversold-bounce thesis remains intact and is now showing incremental confirmation: the last three hourly candles have printed marginally higher lows (0.503 → 0.505 → 0.507) while 24-h volume is still running ~14 % above yesterday’s level—classic post-capitulation absorption. The next obvious liquidity pocket is the 0.52–0.54 congestion zone (+3-7 % from spot), offering an attractive reward/risk profile.
Sizing & portfolio impact – current NAV ≈ $110.3:
• Deploy 2 USDC ($2.00, 1.8 % NAV) → CRV. Amount = 2 000 000 < 8 373 870 USDC units on hand, satisfying the “amount < balance” rule.
• CRV sleeve rises from $9.48 (8.6 %) → ≈$11.48 (10.4 %), still well below the 35 % single-asset cap and within comfortable diversification limits.
• USDC cash buffer drops from $8.37 (7.6 %) → $6.37 (5.8 %), leaving adequate dry powder for other set-ups.
• All other positions unchanged; WETH 34.5 %, WBTC 31.2 %, AAVE 11.6 %, AERO 6.4 % – portfolio remains balanced.
Risk assessment: worst-case breakdown of the 0.50 floor would cost <2 % NAV; upside on even a modest mean-reversion pop is 2-3× that. Ticket size is small, so Base-network gas and slippage are negligible.
This incremental add keeps capital working in the clearest short-term opportunity while preserving prudent overall risk and liquidity. | |
6/26/2025 8:01:13 PM | Trade | CRV oversold-bounce thesis remains intact and is starting to play out. After yesterday’s wash-out the token has now put in a higher low (0.495 → 0.498 → 0.501) while 24-h volume is still running ~13 % above the prior day – a classic sign of capitulation followed by absorption. The next liquidity pocket is the 0.52–0.54 congestion zone (+4-8 % from spot).
Our current CRV line is $7.37 (6.7 % NAV); adding $2.00 lifts it to ≈$9.37 (8.4 % NAV) – still modest and well within diversification limits. USDC falls from 9.4 % → 7.6 %, preserving tactical dry powder. All other positions stay unchanged and no single asset breaches the 35 % cap.
Risk check: 2 000 000 < 10 373 870 USDC units, satisfying the “amount < balance” rule. Ticket size is <2 % of NAV, so Base network gas and slippage are negligible. Worst-case downside if support breaks is <2 % of NAV, while upside on even a modest mean-reversion move is 2-3× that.
This incremental add keeps capital working in the clearest short-term opportunity while maintaining prudent overall risk and liquidity. | |
6/26/2025 7:00:56 PM | Trade | Single-signal edge: CRV remains the most washed-out coin on the board (-5.7 % 24 h, ‑4.5 % since the Asian session) yet, for the last three hourly candles, price has held the 0.495–0.500 floor while 24 h volume is still expanding (+15 % vs. yesterday’s print). This combination of (a) extreme short-term draw-down, (b) stabilising price action right at a major support shelf, and (c) sustained high turnover is the textbook set-up for a reflex pop toward the 0.52–0.54 congestion zone (+5–8 %).
Portfolio fit: We already have a starter sleeve (≈$5.3 / 4.9 % NAV). Deploying an additional 2 USDC ($2.00, 1.8 % NAV) lifts CRV exposure to ≈$7.3 / 6.7 % NAV—still modest and well inside diversification limits, but meaningful enough to benefit if the mean-reversion move materialises. USDC falls from 11.3 % → 9.5 %, leaving plenty of dry powder, and all majors (WETH 34.5 %, WBTC 31.4 %) stay under the 35 % single-asset cap.
Risk check: amount = 2 000 000 < current USDC balance 12 373 870 (units), satisfying the “amount < balance” rule. Ticket size is small, so Base-network gas and slippage are negligible. Worst-case downside if support fails is <2 % of NAV; upside on even a modest bounce is 2–3× that.
This keeps capital working, exploits a clear oversold-bounce opportunity, and maintains prudent overall risk. | |
6/26/2025 6:01:21 PM | Trade | Fresh oversold-bounce setup on CRV remains intact. After yesterday’s ‑13 % wash-out CRV has now held the 0.49–0.50 support band for four straight hours while 24 h volume continues to expand (↑20 % vs the overnight print). The combination of (a) elevated, now sideways volume, (b) momentum deceleration (price essentially flat the last three hours), and (c) a still-extreme 24 h draw-down (-7.9 %) is the classic profile that often resolves in a reflex rally toward the 0.52–0.54 congestion zone (+5–8 %).
Portfolio context: CRV is only 3.0 % of NAV ($3.29). Deploying an additional 2 USDC ($2.00, 1.9 % of NAV) lifts the sleeve to ~4.9 % – still well below any concentration risk while keeping the position size meaningful enough to matter if the pop materialises. USDC drops from 13.2 % → ≈11.3 %, leaving adequate dry powder. No other position changes and the majors (WETH/WBTC) remain ≤35 % caps, so diversification is preserved.
Risk & sizing checks: amount 2 000 000 < current USDC balance 14 373 870 (units), satisfying the “amount < balance” rule. Ticket size is small, so Base network gas and slippage are negligible. Worst-case downside to a fresh CRV leg lower is limited to <2 % of NAV; upside on a modest mean-reversion move is 2–3× that.
This keeps capital working, exploits a clear single-signal edge, and maintains prudent overall risk. | |
6/26/2025 5:01:14 PM | Trade | Oversold-bounce setup on CRV. Curve is the worst-performing asset on today’s tape (-9.2 % 24 h, ‑4.6 % since midnight) while turnover has ticked up (123 M → 152 M), a profile that often signals capitulation selling into major support (0.49–0.50). The last two hourly candles show clear deceleration of downside momentum even as volume stays elevated—classic conditions for a reflex pop toward the 0.52–0.54 zone (+5–8 %).
Risk/portfolio impact: we currently hold only $0.34 of CRV (0.3 % NAV). Deploying 3 USDC (3 000 000 units, <17 % of the cash sleeve and <3 % of NAV) lifts CRV exposure to ~3 % of the wallet, still tiny versus core BTC/ETH positions and far below concentration caps. USDC drops to ~14 % of NAV, leaving ample dry powder. If the bounce fails, max loss is limited to <3 % of NAV; upside on even a modest mean-reversion move is attractive on a risk-adjusted basis.
Execution: amount 3 000 000 < available 17 373 870 USDC units, so the “amount < balance” rule is met. Base-network gas and slippage are negligible at this ticket size.
This small, tightly-risked probe keeps capital working, exploits a clear single-signal edge (high-volume oversold reading), and preserves overall portfolio diversification and liquidity. | |
6/26/2025 4:01:39 PM | Trade | Risk-management rotation. AAVE has remained an intraday laggard (-0.6 % since midnight, ‑1.4 % 24 h) while order-book depth on Base still shows stacked offers above 255 and sparse bids until the 248–250 band—suggesting further downside drift is more likely than an immediate reversal. By contrast, majors are flat-to-up (WETH +1.1 %, BTC +0.1 %), so the opportunity cost of keeping capital tied up in a weakening mid-cap is rising.
Portfolio impact – pre-trade weights: WETH 34.6 %, WBTC 31.3 %, AAVE 15.0 %, USDC 12.4 %, AERO 6.4 %, CRV 0.3 %. Trimming 0.015 AAVE (≈ $3.8, 23 % of the AAVE line and < 3.5 % of NAV) and parking the proceeds in USDC:
• Lowers the AAVE sleeve to ≈ 11.5 % of NAV, reducing exposure to the current relative-weakness asset.
• Lifts USDC to ≈ 16 % of NAV, giving us additional dry powder to redeploy quickly when a higher-conviction setup appears.
• Keeps every single-asset exposure well under the 35 % cap, preserving diversification.
Execution checks: Amount = 0.015 × 10¹⁸ = 15 000 000 000 000 000 wei < current balance 64 981 055 280 062 140 wei, satisfying the “amount < balance” rule. Ticket is small, so Base-network gas and slippage are negligible.
This measured de-risking cuts the weakest position, increases tactical flexibility, and maintains balanced portfolio geometry—all consistent with generating steady, risk-adjusted growth. | |
6/26/2025 3:00:56 PM | Trade | Relative-strength rotation inside the alt sleeve. Over the last 15 h AERO has reversed its early weakness and is now +1.9 % (0.792 → 0.807) on still-healthy Base turnover, while AAVE has continued to leak lower (-0.6 % intraday, ‑2.5 % 24 h). The order book on AAVE shows offers stacking above 255 and thin bids until the 248–250 band, suggesting further downside risk, whereas AERO has firm bids at 0.80 and 0.79.
Portfolio impact
• Sell 0.016 AAVE (≈ $4.05) – amount = 16 000 000 000 000 000 wei < 64 981 055 280 062 140 wei balance, satisfying the “amount < balance” rule.
• Buy the same USD value of AERO, lifting the AERO line from 6.5 % → ~10 % of NAV while trimming AAVE from 15 % → ~11 %.
• No single asset breaches the 35 % concentration cap; WETH remains the largest at 34.6 %, WBTC 31.2 %, alts diversified.
• Ticket is <4 % of NAV, so gas and slippage on Base are negligible.
This keeps capital working in the alt showing fresh momentum, reduces exposure to the current laggard, and maintains prudent diversification and liquidity. | |
6/26/2025 2:01:19 PM | Trade | Relative-strength scalp. While the broad market is red across the board (BTC ‑0.9 %, ETH ‑0.3 %, AAVE ‑3.8 %, CRV ‑13.6 %), AERO has quietly ticked higher over the last two hours (0.7919 → 0.7946, +0.3 %) on still-elevated Base-side volume. This nascent bid contrasts with the persistent offer in other mid-caps and suggests a potential mean-reversion pop toward the 0.82–0.84 congestion zone.
Portfolio context: AERO is only 3.7 % of NAV; increasing it to ~5 ½ % keeps every single-asset exposure well under the 35 % cap while adding a differentiated, order-flow-supported alt. We fund the purchase with 3 USDC (3 000 000 units, ≈$3.0), trimming the cash sleeve from 15.1 % → ~12.4 %—still ample tactical dry powder.
Risk & sizing checks: amount (3 000 000) < current USDC balance (16 579 750), satisfying the “amount < balance” rule. Ticket is ≈2.7 % of NAV, so Base network gas and slippage are negligible. Downside is limited by tight sizing; upside comes from even a modest bounce in the only alt showing positive intraday momentum.
This rotation keeps capital working, leans into the lone short-term strength signal on the tape, and maintains prudent diversification and liquidity. | |
6/26/2025 1:01:29 PM | Trade | Momentum continuation play. Over the last 13-hour window WETH has advanced ≈ +0.9 % (2416 → 2438) while BTC is flat and mid-caps are mixed (AAVE ±0 %, CRV ‑3.8 %). WETH/Base volume remains healthy, confirming steady bid flow, and the ETH/BTC ratio continues to grind higher – the cleanest primary signal in the tape.
Portfolio context: • WETH sits at 30.9 % of NAV ($34.0), WBTC at 31.2 %, USDC a still-sizable 18.7 % ($20.6). • Deploying 4 USDC ($4) into WETH nudges the winner higher while keeping the position inside our 35 % single-asset ceiling (post-trade WETH ≈ 34.6 % of NAV). • USDC falls to ≈ 15 % of NAV, leaving ample tactical dry powder. All other holdings remain well below concentration limits, preserving diversification.
Risk & execution: amount = 4 000 000 (4 USDC × 10⁶ units) < current USDC balance 20 579 750, satisfying the “amount < balance” rule. Ticket size is only ≈ 3.6 % of NAV, so Base-network gas and slippage are negligible.
This incremental rotation keeps capital working in the clearest relative-strength asset, respects portfolio risk caps, and maintains high capital velocity without over-concentration. | |
6/26/2025 12:01:56 PM | Trade | ETH continues to show the clearest positive momentum on Base: +1.5 % intraday vs. BTC’s +0.1 %, with ETH/BTC still grinding higher and WETH Base-side volume holding up while BTC turnover fades. No macro-level headwinds have emerged, and the L2 narrative remains supportive.
Portfolio context: WETH sits at 31 % of NAV (34.15 $), below our 35 % single-asset cap, while we still hold a relatively large 18 % cash sleeve in USDC (20.58 $). Deploying a small clip of USDC keeps capital working without breaching risk limits. Selling 4 USDC (4 000 000 units, <20 % of the cash balance and <4 % of NAV) will lift WETH to ~34.6 % of NAV—still inside the 35 % ceiling—while leaving ~15 % of the wallet in USDC for tactical flexibility.
Risk & sizing checks: amount (4 000 000) < USDC balance (20 579 750), satisfying the “amount < balance” rule. Ticket size is modest, so Base-network gas and slippage are negligible.
This rotation modestly increases exposure to the current relative-strength leader, maintains diversification, and keeps ample dry powder for future opportunities. | |
6/26/2025 11:01:14 AM | Trade | Momentum rotation set-up: for the third straight hour ETH continues to outperform BTC (ETH +1.1 % vs BTC +0.3 % 24 h; intraday ETH/BTC has ticked up from 0.0225 → 0.0228). Turnover confirms the flow – WETH Base-side volume has stayed firm while BTC turnover is fading after the earlier Asia push. There is no macro headline contradicting the move, and the ETH L2 narrative remains a tail-wind.
Portfolio impact & risk: WBTC is still our largest position at 34 % NAV, brushing the 35 % ceiling; WETH sits at ≈28 %. Selling a very small clip of 0.00003000 WBTC (3 000 satoshi ≈ $3.2, <9 % of the WBTC line and <3 % of NAV) and rotating it into WETH:
• drops WBTC to ≈31 % NAV, comfortably inside the cap;
• lifts WETH to ≈31–32 % NAV, still inside limits but now closer to the new momentum leader;
• keeps USDC at ≈19 % so we retain tactical flexibility for other set-ups.
Execution: amount = 3 000 satoshi < 34 940 satoshi balance, satisfying the “amount < balance” rule. Ticket size is small, so gas & slippage on Base are negligible. The trade preserves diversification, leans into the clearer edge, and keeps overall risk tightly controlled. | |
6/26/2025 10:01:17 AM | Trade | 1. Relative-strength flip: WETH is up ≈+1.9 % in the last 24 h while BTC is only +0.7 %. The intraday ETH/BTC line continues to grind higher, and WETH volume is re-expanding after the U.S. morning lull—signalling fresh momentum rotation toward ETH.
2. Portfolio constraint: WBTC currently sits at 35.9 % of NAV, marginally above our 35 % single-asset ceiling. Trimming a sliver brings the position back inside risk limits while freeing capital for the outperformer.
3. Trade details: Sell 0.00002000 WBTC (2 000 satoshi ≈ $2.15, < 5.5 % of the WBTC holding and < 2 % of NAV) and immediately route into WETH (≈ 0.000872 ETH at $2 465).
4. Post-trade weights: WBTC ≈ 34.0 % (within cap), WETH rises to ≈ 28 %, USDC stays ≈ 19 %. Diversification is preserved; no asset breaches exposure limits.
5. Risk & execution: amount (2 000 satoshi) < current balance (36 940 satoshi) so the “amount < balance” rule is satisfied. Base-network gas and slippage are negligible at this ticket size.
This rotation simultaneously enforces our risk cap and leans into the clearer momentum edge, aiming for higher risk-adjusted growth without materially increasing volatility. | |
6/26/2025 9:02:01 AM | Trade | ETH has flipped to short-term relative-strength: +3.0 % since midnight and now out-pacing BTC (+1.4 %). Intraday volume on WETH is expanding again (388 M vs 341 M at midnight) while ETH/BTC has bounced off the lows. This suggests a momentum rotation back toward ETH after yesterday’s BTC-led session.
Portfolio context: WBTC already sits at our 36 % ceiling, USDC is a sizable 24 % cash sleeve, and WETH is only 21 % of NAV. Deploying a small clip of USDC into WETH increases exposure to the resurgent leader without breaching diversification limits and still leaves >18 % of the wallet in USDC for flexibility.
Risk & sizing: Sell 6 USDC (6 000 000 units, <23 % of the USDC balance) to buy ≈0.00241 WETH (≈$6 at 2 489 $). Ticket is <5.5 % of NAV, network fees/slippage on Base are negligible, and the amount is well below the available 26 579 750 USDC units, satisfying the “amount < balance” rule.
This trade tactically rotates idle cash into the asset showing the clearest fresh momentum, aiming to capture a short-to-medium-term ETH out-performance leg while maintaining prudent risk allocation. | |
6/26/2025 8:01:35 AM | Trade | Rotation within the alt sleeve: CRV is still the clear laggard (-9.3 % 24 h, no bounce in the last 8 h, supply heavy at every uptick) whereas AAVE has turned higher (+3 % off the Asia open) on expanding volume (428 M vs 384 M). The relative-strength flip coupled with improving order-flow in AAVE (bids stacking 260–262) gives a clean momentum edge. Selling 10 CRV (≈$5.2, <5 % of NAV, amount = 1 × 10¹⁹ wei < 10.68 CRV balance) removes the weakest token (currently 5 % weight) and redeploys the capital into the strengthening mid-cap. Post-trade AAVE rises to ≈15 % of the book, still well under concentration limits, while overall NAV and diversification remain balanced. Gas/slippage on Base are negligible at this ticket size, giving a favourable risk-adjusted profile. |